On methods of estimating current condition and of forecasting social instability:
attempted quantitative analysis of the events of the Arab spring


Malkov S.Yu.

Korotayev A.V.,

Ph.D., Dr. Sci. (Hist.), Professor, Head of Socio-Political Destabilization Risk Monitoring Laboratory, National Research University Higher School of Economics; Leading Researcher, Institute for Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, akorotayev@gmail.com

elibrary_id: 72980 |

Isayev L.M.,

Cand. Sci. (Pol. Sci.), Senior Lecturer, Department of Political Science, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Researcher, Institute of African Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, isleonid@yandex.ru

Kuzminova Ye.V.


ID of the Article:


For citation:

Malkov S.Yu., Korotayev A.V., Isayev L.M., Kuzminova Ye.V. On methods of estimating current condition and of forecasting social instability: attempted quantitative analysis of the events of the Arab spring . – Polis. Political Studies. 2013. No 4. P. 137-162 (In Russ.)



Abstract

The anti-regime actions that began in 2011 and in the same year began to be everywhere named the Arab spring, seized practically all Arab countries, except Somalia, Djibouti and Comoros – all situated at the periphery of the Arab Orient. The said events of 2011 exerted considerable influence on the very specter of further political development and somewhere even cardinally changed the existing political regimes. This work presents “reconnaissance by data analysis” and is an endeavor of quantitative estimation of socio-political commotions, with the aim to elaborate the methods of counting up the instability index, that would allow to evaluate potential of “conflictogeneousness” in Arab countries.

Keywords
the Arab spring; the Arab world; Islam; destabilization processes; “reconnaissance by data analysis”; the instability index.


Content No 4, 2013

See also:


Korotayev A.V., Shishkina A.R., Isayev L.M.,
Arab Spring as a Global Phase Transition Trigger. – Polis. Political Studies. 2016. No3

Korotayev A.V., Shishkina A.R., Lukhmanova Z.T.,
The Global Socio-Political Destabilization Wave of 2011 and the Following Years: A Quantitative Analysis. – Polis. Political Studies. 2017. No6

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Bolshova N.N.,
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