print

Casual Mechanism vs Pile of Facts:
How to Evaluate Casual Links in Case Study Research

Turchenko M.S.,

Cand. Sci. (Pol. Sci.), Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, European University at St. Petersburg, mturchenko@eu.spb.ru

elibrary_id: 821906 | ORCID: 0000-0001-8535-5473 | RESEARCHER_ID: A-8499-2016

Zavadskaya M.A.,

Ph.D., senior research fellow, Finnish Institute of International Affairs; senior research fellow at the Laboratory for Comparative Social Research, HSE University in St. Petersburg, mzavadskaya@hse.ru

elibrary_id: 787846 | ORCID: 0000-0002-3728-4073 | RESEARCHER_ID: O-1815-2016

DOI: 10.17976/jpps/2017.02.09

Rubric: Theory and Methodology of Political Studies

For citation:

Turchenko M.S., Zavadskaya M.A. Casual Mechanism vs Pile of Facts: How to Evaluate Casual Links in Case Study Research. – Polis. Political Studies. 2017. No. 2. P. 134-146. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2017.02.09

Abstract

This article speaks to methodological aspects of the ways to use a popular research technique – process tracing. The latter has gained momentum as a compromise between neo-positivist and interpretative approaches. Authors provide a brief overview of the method’s role in current political research; carefully describe the peculiarities of method’s procedure; compare process tracing with other research tools and discuss its advantages and shortcomings. Process tracing is a type of within-case analysis that aims at inferring causal mechanisms that bring about outcomes in question. The main strengths of the approach are 1) possibility of falsification tests, 2) rigor of analytical procedure, based on Bayesian logic and related empirical tests, 3) getting the most of in-depth knowledge of the case, 4) compatibility with quantitative research as the auxiliary method. Apart from that, process tracing serves as a powerful remedy against a-theoretical narratives and turns the case study into a genuinely captivating detective storyline. Among the weak points one should mention 1) lack of parsimonial explanations, 2) lack of generalizability, 3) time-consuming process of data collection. To demonstrate how process tracing can be used in real-world research the article provides one example based on study by Ahmed which devoted to electoral reforms in Europe at the end of the 19th century. It is shown how Ahmed based on process tracing falsified the influential theory by Rokkan-Boix and put forward the solid argument for her model of explaining the logic of electoral system reforms in Europe at the time of the franchise expanded. 

Keywords

process tracing; political methodology; qualitative analysis; case study; Bayesian logic; causal mechanism; electoral reform.

  Full Text

Ahmed A. Reading History Forward: The Origins of Electoral Systems in European Democracies. – Comparative Political Studies. 2010. Vol. 43. No. 8-9. P. 1059-1088. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0010414010370436

Ahmed A. Democracy and the Politics of Electoral System Choice: Engineering Electoral Dominance. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 2013. 242 p.

Beach D. It’s All About Mechanisms – What Process-Tracing Case Studies Should Be Tracing. – New Political Economy. 2016. Vol. 21. No. 5. P. 463-472. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13563467.2015.1134466

Beach D., Pedersen R. Process-Tracing Methods: Foundations and Guidelines. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press. 2013. 208 p. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3998/mpub.2556282

Bennett A. Process Tracing: A Bayesian Perspective. – The Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology. Ed. by J.M. Box-Steffensmeier, H.E. Brady, D. Collier. Oxford, New York: Oxford University Press. 2008. P. 703-721. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199286546.003.0030

Bennett A. Process-Tracing and Causal Inference. – Rethinking Social Inquiry: Diverse Tools, Shared Standards. 2nd ed. Ed. by H.E. Brady, D. Collier. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield. 2010. P. 207-219.

Bennett A., Checkel J.T. Process Tracing: From Philosophical Roots to Best Practices. – Process Tracing: From Metaphor to Analytic Tool. Ed. by A. Bennett, J.T. Checkel. Cambridge, New York, Melbourne: Cambridge University Press. 2015. P. 3-37.

Bennett A., Elman C. Qualitative Research: Recent Developments in Case Study Methods. – Annual Review of Political Science. 2006. Vol. 9. P. 455-476. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polis­ci.8.082103.104918

Boix C. Setting the Rules of the Game: The Choice of Electoral Systems in Advanced Democracies. – The American Political Science Review. 1999. Vol. 93. No. 3. P. 609-624. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2585577

Checkel J.T. Tracing Causal Mechanisms. – International Studies Review. 2006. Vol. 8. No. 2. P. 362-370. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2486.2006.00598_2.x

Collier D. Understanding Process Tracing. – PS: Political Science and Politics. 2011. Vol. 44. No. 4. P. 823-830. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S1049096511001429

Della Porta D. Comparative Analysis: Case-oriented versus Variable-oriented Research. – Approaches and Methodologies in the Social Sciences. Ed. by D. Della Porta, M. Keating. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 2008. P. 198-222. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511801938.012

Falleti T.G. Process Tracing of Extensive and Intensive Processes. – New Political Economy. 2016. Vol. 21. No. 5. P. 455-462. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13563467.2015.1135550

George A. L., Bennett A. Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Sciences. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. 2005. 350 p.

Godfrey-Smith P. Theory and Reality: An Introduction to the Philosophy of Science. Chicago, London: The University of Chicago Press. 2003. 288 p. DOI: https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226300610.001.0001

Hall P.A. Systematic Process Analysis: When and How to Use It. – European Political Science. 2008. Vol. 7. No. 3. P. 304-317. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.eps.2210130

Heritier A. Causal explanation. – Approaches and Methodologies in the Social Sciences. Ed. by D. Della Porta, M. Keating. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 2008. P. 61-79. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/ CBO9780511801938.005

Kay A., Baker P. What Can Causal Process Tracing Offer to Policy Studies? A Review of the Literature. – Policy Studies Journal. 2015. Vol. 43. No. 1. P. 1-21. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/psj.12092

King G., Keohane R.O., Verba S. Designing Social Inquiry: Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press. 1994. 300 p.

Lijphart A. Comparative Politics and the Comparative Method. – The American Political Science Review. 1971. Vol. 65. No. 3. P. 682-693. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1955513

Mahoney J. After KKV: The New Methodology of Qualitative Research. – World Politics. 2010. Vol. 62. No. 1. P. 120-147. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0043887109990220

Mahoney J. The Logic of Process Tracing Tests in the Social Sciences. – Sociological Methods & Research. 2012. Vol. 41. No. 4. P. 570-597. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0049124112437709

Mahoney J. Process Tracing and Historical Explanation. – Security Studies. 2015. Vol. 24. No. 2. P. 200-218. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2015.1036610

New Political Economy. 2016. Vol. 21. No. 5.

Process Tracing: From Metaphor to Analytic Tool. Ed. by A. Bennett, J.T. Checkel. Cambridge University Press. 2015. 342 p.

Rohlfing I. Comparative Hypothesis Testing Via Process Tracing. – Sociological Methods & Research. 2014. Vol. 43. No. 4. P. 606-642. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0049124113503142

Rokkan S. Citizens, Elections, Parties: Approaches to the Comparative Study of the Processes of Development. Oslo: Universitetsforlaget. 1970. 470 p.

Security Studies. 2015. Vol. 24. No. 2.

Trampusch C., Palier B. Between X and Y: How Process Tracing Contributes to Opening the Black Box of Causality. – New Political Economy. 2016. Vol. 21. No. 5. P. 437-454. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13 563467.2015.1134465

Van Evera S. Guide to Methods for Students of Political Science. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press. 1997. 144 p.

Venesson P. Case Studies and Process Tracing: Theories and Practices. – Approaches and Methodologies in the Social Sciences. Ed. by D. Della Porta, M. Keating. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 2008. P. 223-239.  

See also: