Three Scenarios of a “Coloured” Revolution in Russia (Modelling the Net Dynamics of the Russian Polity)


Kazantzev A.A.,

Dr. Sci. (Pol. Sci.), Director of the Analytical Center, Institute of International Studies, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University), andrka@mail.ru

elibrary_id: 123521 | ORCID: 0000-0002-4845-1391 |


DOI: 10.17976/jpps/2006.01.04
For citation:

Kazantzev A.A. Three Scenarios of a “Coloured” Revolution in Russia (Modelling the Net Dynamics of the Russian Polity) . – Polis. Political Studies. 2006. No. 1. P. 45-66. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2006.01.04



Abstract

Is revolution possible in modern Russia? Under what conditions may it take place? In search of answers to these questions the author turns to analysis of the net dynamics of the Russian political system. The model of revolutionary net dynamics, which he offers, is based on the hypothesis that what is inherent in the Russian political system at all its levels, are value-based integration, dualistic vision of the world, and institutions of an imperial type. In society like this, revolutions inevitably take the form of transformation from within human spirit. This means that reasons of revolutions in Russia should be sought rather in the sphere of social consciousness than in real social practices. At that, the switches of social macro-processes leading to revolution, are here to be found in the centre of the system. In other words, revolutions in Russia are possible almost anytime, but efficient and tough power can almost anytime avert them. According to the author's conclusion, today a re-volution can be started up by: (1) partial liberalization of the regime, with the latter happening to completely lose its ability to function; (2) an intra-elite split provoked by a revolution from up; and, finally, (3) by unexpected death (natural or violent) of head of state, with no legitimate successor available.


Content No. 1, 2006

See also:


Pivovarov Yu.S.,
Russian Power and Public Policy (A Historian’s Notes about the Reasons of Unsuccess of the Democratic Transit). – Polis. Political Studies. 2006. No1

Glebova I.I.,
Political Culture of Modern Russia: Images of the New Russian Power and the Social Splits. – Polis. Political Studies. 2006. No1

Sokolov M.M.,
The Russian National Unity: Analysis of the Political Style of a Radical-Nationalist Organization. – Polis. Political Studies. 2006. No1

Bruder W.,
Bureaucracy. – Polis. Political Studies. 1991. No5

Information,
Introducing the «MGIMO-University Bulletin». – Polis. Political Studies. 2009. No6


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