On methods of estimating current condition and of forecasting social instability: attempted quantitative analysis of the events of the Arab spring

On methods of estimating current condition and of forecasting social instability: attempted quantitative analysis of the events of the Arab spring


Malkov S.Yu.

Korotayev A.V.,

Dr. Sci. (Philos.), Dr. Sci. (Hist.), Professor, Head of Centre for Stability and Risk Analysis, HSE University; Senior Research Fellow, RUDN University; Professor of the Faculty of Global Studies, M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University, akorotayev@gmail.com


elibrary_id: 72980 | ORCID: 0000-0003-3014-2037 | RESEARCHER_ID: N-1160-2018

Isayev L.M.,

Cand. Sci. (Pol. Sci.), Vice-Head of the Laboratory for the Monitoring of Sociopolitical Destabilization Risks, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia, isleonid@yandex.ru


elibrary_id: 642938 |

Kuzminova Ye.V.



For citation:

Malkov S.Yu., Korotayev A.V., Isayev L.M., Kuzminova Ye.V. On methods of estimating current condition and of forecasting social instability: attempted quantitative analysis of the events of the Arab spring . – Polis. Political Studies. 2013. No. 4. P. 137-162. (In Russ.)



Abstract

The anti-regime actions that began in 2011 and in the same year began to be everywhere named the Arab spring, seized practically all Arab countries, except Somalia, Djibouti and Comoros – all situated at the periphery of the Arab Orient. The said events of 2011 exerted considerable influence on the very specter of further political development and somewhere even cardinally changed the existing political regimes. This work presents “reconnaissance by data analysis” and is an endeavor of quantitative estimation of socio-political commotions, with the aim to elaborate the methods of counting up the instability index, that would allow to evaluate potential of “conflictogeneousness” in Arab countries.

Keywords
the Arab spring; the Arab world; Islam; destabilization processes; “reconnaissance by data analysis”; the instability index.


Content No. 4, 2013

See also:


Korotayev A.V., Shishkina A.R., Baltach A.A.,
Relative Deprivation as a Factor of Socio-Political Destabilization: Towards the Quantitative Analysis of the Arab Spring. – Polis. Political Studies. 2019. No2

Korotayev A.V., Shishkina A.R., Isayev L.M.,
Arab Spring as a Global Phase Transition Trigger. – Polis. Political Studies. 2016. No3

Korotayev A.V., Shishkina A.R., Lukhmanova Z.T.,
The Global Socio-Political Destabilization Wave of 2011 and the Following Years: A Quantitative Analysis. – Polis. Political Studies. 2017. No6

Goldstone J.A., Grinin L.Ye., Korotayev A.V.,
Waves of revolutions in the 21st century. – Polis. Political Studies. 2022. No4

Ivanov E.A., Isayev L.M.,
On Methods of Estimating Current Condition and of Forecasting Social Instability in Central Asia. – Polis. Political Studies. 2019. No2


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