Из огня да в полымя? (Динамика постсоветских режимов в сравнительной перспективе)
Гельман В. Я.,
Кандидат политических наук, доцент факультета политических наук и социологии Европейского университета в Санкт-Петербурге, gelman@eu.spb.ru
DOI: 10.17976/jpps/2007.02.06
Гельман В. Я. Из огня да в полымя? (Динамика постсоветских режимов в сравнительной перспективе). – Полис. Политические исследования. 2007. № 2. С. 81-108. https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2007.02.06
Почему одни страны становятся демократиями, а в других на смену одним недемократическим режимам приходят другие? Рассматривая политические трансформации в постсоветских странах как «естественный эксперимент» режимных изменений, автор предлагает оригинальный подход к анализу изменений режимов на постсоветском пространстве. Согласно его гипотезе, различие вариантов таких изменений обусловлено сценариями межэлитных конфликтов, которые (сценарии), в свою очередь, зависят от структуры («наследие прошлого» и распределение ресурсов) и агентов (элиты, их представления и стратегии), причем сценарии межэлитных конфликтов в процессе смены режимов не всегда ведут к определенному «пункту назначения»: один сценарий может трансформироваться в другой, в т.ч. и под воздействием экзогенных факторов, задающих структуру политических возможностей. В качестве первого шага к проверке этой гипотезы автор анализирует политические трансформации в трех постсоветских странах – в России, на Украине и в Беларуси.
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