Expert-statistical, bayesian approach to political prognostication scenarios


Blagoveshchensky Yu.N.,

Dr. Sci. (Phys.-Math.), Leading Expert, INDEM Foundation, vkbun@yandex.ru

elibrary_id: 85428 |

Krechetova M.Yu.

Satarov G.A.,

Cand. Sci. (Tech.), President, INDEM Foundation, moskars@mail.ru

elibrary_id: 165292 |


For citation:

Blagoveshchensky Yu.N., Krechetova M.Yu., Satarov G.A. Expert-statistical, bayesian approach to political prognostication scenarios. Polis. Political Studies. 2012. No. 4. P. 74-98. (In Russ.)



Abstract

The authors expose foundations of a new approach to political prognostication scenarios – the one based on special procedures of alienating expert knowledge and on statistical methods of analyzing expert assessments, with the Bayesian method applied. Making use of a number of experiments realized within the period between 2005 and 2012, they demonstrate some of the principal results of middle-term and operative forecasts of the political developments in Russia. The authors adduce their considerations as to: certain problems of the disclosed method; probable prospects of its further development; alternative spheres of its application.

Keywords
Russia; power; forecasts; scenarios; Bayesian method; democracy; odds.

 


Content No. 4, 2012

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