.jpg)
printNeo-Realistic Approach to Analysis of Military-Political Situation in the Arctic
Kravchuk A.A.,
Freelance Researcher, Asia Pacific International Institutions & Multilateral Cooperation Studies Center of Oriental Institute – School of Regional and International Studies of Far Eastern Federal University (FEFU), Vladivostok, zkv3krava@mail.ru
elibrary_id: 917563 |
DOI: 10.17976/jpps/2019.01.10
Rubric: Orbis Terrarum
For citation:
Kravchuk A.A. Neo-Realistic Approach to Analysis of Military-Political Situation in the Arctic. – Polis. Political Studies. 2019. No. 1. P. 136-148. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2019.01.10
Abstract
The current state of international relations in the Arctic is characterized by a high degree of distrust among regional states, which is accompanied by increase in their military activity. That process could have a detrimental effect on regional security prospects. This article presents a comprehensive analysis of the military-political situation in the Arctic region. The author suggests that from the military perspective there are only two key actors represented in the Arctic – Russia and NATO. The results of a comparative analysis of the military power of those actors show quantitative superiority of NATO in this aspect. However, for a number of reasons, NATO is not yet a fully capable political actor in the region, which could formulate a common Arctic agenda for its members. Trying to determine what triggered the process of building military power in the region, the author resorted to applying the basic postulates of the offensive realism concept, within which the main goal of any state is the survival, and the main motive for its actions is the fear of destruction. According to the results of the analysis, the author comes to the conclusion that today the Arctic states have become hostages to the “security dilemma”, since all of them have their own legitimate reasons for mutual fears, especially in the conditions of the crisis of trust.
Keywords
the Arctic, offensive realism, national security, NATO, Russia, balance of power, military might, security dilemma.
References
Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal: Estimates of Undiscovered Oil and Gas North of the Arctic Circle. Ed. by P.H. Stauffer. 2008. USGS. Science for a Changing World. URL: http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2008/3049/fs2008-3049.pdf (accessed 08.03.2018).
Foxall A. 2017. Russia’s Policies towards a Changing Arctic: Implications for UK Security. Russia Studies Centre at the Henry Jackson Society. Research Paper, No. 2, June. 15 p.
Haftendorn H. 2011. NATO and the Arctic: Is the Atlantic Alliance a Cold War Relic in a Peaceful Region Now Faced with Non-military Challenges. – European Security. Vol. 20. No. 3. P. 337-362. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09662839.2011.608352
Index of US Military Strength – Assessing America’s Ability to Provide for the Common Defense. Ed. by Wood D.L. 2017. Washington, DC: The Heritage Foundation. 391 p.
Konyshev V., Sergunin A. 2014. Is Russia a Revisionist Military Power in the Arctic? – Defense and Security Analysis. Vol. 30. No. 4. https://doi.org/10.1080/14751798.2014.948276
Konyshev V.N., Sergunin A.A., Subbotin S.V. 2016. The US Ballistic Missile Defense Policy in the Baltic and Nordic Regions. – Baltic Region. Vol. 8. No. 1. P. 33-44. https://doi.org/10.5922/2079-8555-2016-1-3
Mearsheimer J.J. 2001. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York: W.W. Norton & Co. 540 р.
Robinson L., Helmus T.C., Cohen R.S., Nader A., Radin A., Magnuson M., Migacheva K. 2018. Modern Political Warfare: Current Practices and Possible Responses. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation. 323 p.
Sevastyanov S., Kravchuk A. 2017. The Russian Approach to National Security in the Arctic. – The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis. Vol. 29. No. 1. P. 131-149.
Trenin D. Avoiding U.S.-Russia Military Escalation During the Hybrid War. – Carnegie Moscow Centre. 25.01.2018. URL: http://carnegie.ru/2018/01/25/avoiding-u.s.-russia-military-escalation-during-hybrid-war-pub-75277 (accessed 23.11.2018).
Wezeman S.T. 2016. Military Capabilities in the Arctic: a New Cold War in the High North? – SIPRI Background Paper. October. URL: https://Www.Sipri.Org/Sites/Default/Files/Military-Capabilities-In-The-Arctic.Pdf (accessed 08.12.2018).
Kravchuk A.A. 2015. The Militarization of the Arctic: Building up the Military Potential of Key Players in the Region. – Strategicheskaya stabil’nost’. No. 4 (73). P. 43-53. (In Russ.)
Kramarenko V.G. 2014. Voennaya deyatel’nost’ NATO v Arktike [NATO Military Activities in the Arctic]. – Trudy nauchno-issledovatel’skogo otdela Instituta voennoi istorii [Proceedings of the Research Department of the Institute of Military History]. Vol. 9. Book 1. Obespechenie natsional’nykh interesov Rossii v Arktike [Ensuring the National Interests of Russia in the Arctic]. St Petersburg: Politekhnika-servis. P. 50-59. (In Russ.)
Khramchikhin A.A. 2011. Military-political Situation in Arctic Regions and the Scenario of Possible Conflicts. – Arctic and North. No. 2. P. 36-50. URL: http://narfu.ru/upload/iblock/7f9/grjopufvqlvzveqamx.pdf (accessed 08.12.2018).
Obshchaya teoriya natsional’noi bezopasnosti. Ed. by A.A. Prokhozhev [The General Theory of National Security. Ed. by A.A. Prokhozhev]. 2005. Moscow: Izdatel’stvo RAGS. 344 p. (In Russ.)
Sergunin A.A., Konyshev V.N. 2013. Remilitarization of the Arctic and the Security of Russia. – Voprosy bezopasnosti. No. 6. P. 1-30. https://doi.org/10.7256/2306-0417.2013.6.3772 (In Russ.)
Zhuravel V.P. 2016. Revitalization of NATO Countries in the Arctic (2016). – Zarubezhnoe voennoe obozrenie. No. 12. P. 14-20. (In Russ.)
Content No. 1, 2019
See also:
Sheynis V.L.,
Russia’s national security. durability trial. Part II. – Polis. Political Studies. 2010. No1
Sheynis V.L.,
Russia’s national security. Durability trial. Part III (The end). – Polis. Political Studies. 2010. No2
Ponamaryova A.M., Tatuntz S.A.,
Immigration as problem of national security of the RF. – Polis. Political Studies. 2010. No4
Sheynis V.L.,
Russia’s national security. Durability trial (Part 1). – Polis. Political Studies. 2009. No5
Timofeev I.N.,
Security Dilemma. Risk of Armed Conflict between the Great Powers. – Polis. Political Studies. 2009. No4
.jpg)
.jpg)