China and Arms Control:
Not Utopia, but a Reality


Arbatov A.G.,

Full Member of RAS, Director, Center for International Security, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, arbatov@imemo.ru

elibrary_id: 73079 |


DOI: 10.17976/jpps/2020.04.04
For citation:

Arbatov A.G. China and Arms Control: Not Utopia, but a Reality. – Polis. Political Studies. 2020. No. 4. P. 36-54. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2020.04.04



Abstract

The article discusses the possibility of expanding the formats of control over nuclear weapons in a situation where China opposes the invitation of the United States to join the talks on medium-range missiles, the extension of the START-3 and the next strategic agreement. The economic, political and military importance of Asia-Pacific region is growing rapidly. The relationship between the forces and interests of Russia, China and the United States in this region is analyzed. Particular attention is paid to the nuclear balance of forces in the region – weapons, their development programs and strategic concepts of use, as well as the agenda of US-Chinese and Russian-American relations. According to the author, in a favorable political environment, it is possible to create a trilateral format for arms control in the form of an integrated New START / INF treaty with the participation of Russia, the United States and China. Such a format would provide China with equal strategic status with the two superpowers and their recognition (even by default) of China’s right to parity and stable mutual deterrence. While Russia and the United States, in addition to resolving a number of bilateral stability issues, would receive guarantees of predictability and the limits of building up Chinese strategic and medium-range nuclear and conventional weapons. At the same time, the author emphasizes the need to continue the bilateral negotiation process as the basis for the transition to multilateral arms control. 

Keywords
international security, China, USA, Russia, Japan, nuclear weapons, arms control, Asia Pacific.


References

Acton J.M. 2013. Silver Bullet? Asking the Right Questions About Conventional Prompt Global Strike. Washington, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. URL: https://carnegieendowment.org/2013/09/03/silver-bullet-asking-right-questions-about-conventional-prompt-global-strike-pub-52778 (accessed 20.05.2020).

China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities – Background and Issues for Congress. 2020. Congressional research Service. Updated March 18, 2020. CRS Report. URL: https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33153.pdf (accessed 19.03.2020).

China’s National Defense in the New Era. 2019. The State Council Information Office of the People’s Republic of China. Beijing: Foreign Languages Press Co. Ltd.

Cohn J., Walton N., Lemon A., Yoshihara T. 2019. Leveling the Playing Field. Reintroducing U.S. Theater-Range Missiles in a Post-INF World. Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. URL: https://csbaonline.org/research/publications/leveling-the-playing-field-reintroducing-us-theater-range-missilesin-a-post-INF-world (accessed 19.03.2020).

Dvorkin V., Pyriev V. 2013. The U.S./NATO Program and Strategic Stability. – Missile Defense: Confrontation and Cooperation. Ed. by A. Arbatov, V. Dvorkin, N. Bubnova. Moscow: Carnegie Moscow Center. P. 183-202. URL: https://carnegieendowment.org/files/Missile_Defense_book_eng_fin2013.pdf (accessed 20.05.2020).

Manzo V. 2019. Nuclear Arms Control without a Treaty? Risks and Options after the New START. CNA’s Strategy, Policy, Plans, and Programs Division (SP3). Deterrence and Arms Control Paper No. 1. URL: https://www.cna.org/CNA_files/PDF/IRM-2019-U-019494.pdf (accessed 20.05.2020).

SIPRI Yearbook 1990: World Armaments, Disarmament and International Security. 1991. Oxford University Press.

SIPRI Yearbook 2019: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security. 2019. Oxford University Press.

Esin V. 2012. Yadernaya moshch’ KNR [China’s Nuclear Might]. – Perspektivy uchastiya Kitaya v ogranichenii yadernykh vooruzhenii [The Prospects of Chinese Involvement in Nuclear Arms Limitation]. Ed. by A.G. Arbatov, V.Z. Dvorkin, S.K. Oznobishchev. Moscow: IMEMO RAN. P. 27-35. (In Russ.)

Karaganov S., Suslov D. 2019. Deterrence in the New Era. – Russia in Global Affairs. No. 4. (In Russ.) URL: https://globalaffairs.ru/number/Sderzhivanie-v-novuyu-epokhu-20174 (accessed 13.09.2019).

Lukin A., Novikov D. 2019. Novye mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya v Bol’shoi Evrazii. Rossiiskaya strategiya v menyayushcheisya geopoliticheskoi dinamike [New International Relations in Big Eurasia. Russian Strategy in a Changing Geopolitical Dynamics]. Moscow: Ves’ Mir Publ. (In Russ.)

Policentrichnyj jadernyj mir: vyzovy i novye vozmozhnosti [Polycentric Nuclear World: Challenges and New Opportunities]. 2017. Ed. by A. Arbatov, V. Dvorkin. Moscow: Moscow Carnegie Center. Political Encyclopedia. 222 p. (In Russ.) 

Content No. 4, 2020

See also:


Arbatov A.G.,
Nuclear reloading and international security. – Polis. Political Studies. 2011. No3

Arbatov A.G.,
Doomsday Dialectics: the Arms Race with Arms Limitations. – Polis. Political Studies. 2019. No3

Sorokin K.E.,
Nuclear Weapons in the Era of Geopolitical Multipolarity. – Polis. Political Studies. 1995. No4

Arapova E.Ya., Khokhlova N.I.,
Regionalization Models in the Asia-Pacific Region. – Polis. Political Studies. 2020. No5

Round Table of the «Polis» Journal, Streltsov D.V., Chugrov S.V., Karelova L.B., Oznobishchev S.K.,
Russia and Japan. Part II. View from Russia. – Polis. Political Studies. 2014. No1

 

   

Introducing an article



Polis. Political Studies
3 2018


Gadzhiev K.S.
Russian Federation: National State or a State of Nations?

 The article text
 

Archive

   2021   
   2020      2019      2018      2017      2016   
   2015      2014      2013      2012      2011   
   2010      2009      2008      2007      2006   
   2005      2004      2003      2002      2001   
   2000      1999      1998      1997      1996   
   1995      1994      1993      1992      1991