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Transformation of the Arctic regime:
Russia’s position amid the rivalry between the great powers

Kobzeva, M. ,

UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromso, Norway, m.kobzeva@uit.no

elibrary_id: 952008 | ORCID: 0000-0001-6054-4374 |

Article received: 2024.09.05 17:59. Accepted: 2025.03.27 17:59


DOI: 10.17976/jpps/2025.04.11
EDN: YYOZQC

Rubric: Laboratory: arctic subjects

For citation:

Kobzeva, M. Transformation of the Arctic regime: Russia’s position amid the rivalry between the great powers. – Polis. Political Studies. 2025. No. 4. https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2025.04.11. EDN: YYOZQC (In Russ.)

This research is supported by the Marie Sklodowska-Curie actions – Individual Fellowship grant.

Abstract

The military conflict in Ukraine in 2022 had significant repercussions on the Arctic regime. Disagreements between Russia and other Arctic states disrupted the operations of key Arctic organizations and cast doubt on future regional cooperation. This study aims to examine the current state of the Arctic regime and Russia’s interests within it. It utilizes regime theory to provide an insightful approach to understanding Arctic affairs amidst escalating tensions. The article begins with a theoretical section that explores state-centric interpretations of regime theory. It elaborates on neorealist and neoliberal perspectives regarding the essence and criteria of regime transformation, highlighting the shortcomings of these theoretical schools and the lack of a holistic view of regime transformation. The second part of the article focuses on the Arctic regime, examining the formation of the Arctic regime complex, its four levels, key norms and principles, and the current challenges linked to its transformation. Drawing on the provisions of neorealism and neoliberalism, the author derives scenarios for the development of the Arctic regime and assesses their implications for both Arctic and non-Arctic actors. Subsequently, the article investigates Russia’s role in the Arctic regime and the consequences of its potential decline for Russia’s national interests. The author reflects on the potential for Russia’s continued involvement in Arctic politics amid geopolitical rivalry while advancing the region’s sustainability agenda. In the conclusion, the study presents its main findings, asserting that the two theoretical approaches are complementary in understanding the causes and outcomes of the Arctic regime’s transformation. The paper identifies fundamental conditions for the regime’s survival: preserving its key norms and principles and finding collaborative solutions to security issues with Russia.

Keywords

Arctic regime, regime theory, international regime, Russia, AZRF, international conflict, Arctic politics.

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