National power of modern states:
conceptualization, operationalization, methods of analysis, and rating
Melville A.Yu.,
HSE University, Moscow, Russia, amelville@hse.ru
elibrary_id: 251142 | ORCID: 0000-0002-1414-5783 | RESEARCHER_ID: B-1152-2014
Kabernik V.V.,
MGIMO University, Moscow, Russia, vic@inno.mgimo.ru
elibrary_id: 841275 | RESEARCHER_ID: I-9388-2014
Mironyuk M.G.,
HSE University, Moscow, Russia, mmironyuk@hse.ru
elibrary_id: 251177 | ORCID: 0000-0002-8183-3084 | RESEARCHER_ID: K-9102-2015
Sedashov E.A.,
HSE University, Moscow, Russia, esedashov@hse.ru
elibrary_id: 666526 | ORCID: 0000-0002-1022-6375 |
Stukal D.K.,
HSE University, Moscow, Russia, dstukal@hse.ru
elibrary_id: 1096522 | ORCID: 0000-0001-6240-5714 | RESEARCHER_ID: ABA-3314-2020
Article received: 2025.04.14 22:32. Accepted: 2025.07.02 22:32

DOI: 10.17976/jpps/2025.05.07
EDN: VAPRNV
Melville A.Yu., Kabernik V.V., Mironyuk M.G., Sedashov E.A., Stukal D.K. National power of modern states: conceptualization, operationalization, methods of analysis, and rating. – Polis. Political Studies. 2025. No. 5. https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2025.05.07. EDN: VAPRNV
The article was prepared within the framework of the grant for the implementation of the program of strategic academic leadership “Priority 2030”. Authors express their gratitude to Dr. Alexey Gromyko, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Director of the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Ivan Timofeev, Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), for valuable comments.
This article develops an understanding of various aspects of the concept of national power in political science and international studies. National power is understood primarily as a measurable ability of an actor to influence the behavior of other actors in politics. This influence can be exercised though various means. Authors continue the research initiated at MGIMO and continued at the Higher School of Economics, including the research within the framework of a consortium of these two universities for the joint implementation of the research project “Political Atlas of the Modern World 2.0”. The authors focus on the dynamics of national power of modern states in a comparative perspective for 1992-2020. A conceptualization of national power and operationalization of its parameters are proposed, as well as methods and tools to analyze and compare trajectories of change in the national power of states.
References
Baldwin, D.A. (2013). Power and international relations. In W. Carlsnaes, T. Risse, B.A. Simmons (Eds.) Handbook of International Relations (pp. 273-297). Los Angeles: Sage.
Bartholomew, D.J, Steele, F., Moustaki, I., & Galbraith, J. (2008). Analysis of multivariate social science data. 2nd ed. New York: Chapman and Hall/CRC. https://doi.org/10.1201/b15114
Brown, T.A. (2006). Confirmatory factor analysis for applied research. New York: Guilford Press.
Cline, R. (1977). World power assessment 1977. A calculus of strategic drift. Boulder: West View Press.
Courtioux, P., Métivier, F., Rebérioux, A. (2022). Nations ranking in scientific competition: countries get what they paid for. Economic Modelling, 116, 105976. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105976
Coyle, D. (2014). GDP: a brief but affectionate history. Princeton, Oxford: Princeton University Press.
Dahl, R. (1957). The concept of power. Behavioral Science, 2(3), 201-2015.
Fels, F. (2017). Shifting power in Asia-Pacific? The rise of China, Sino-US competition and regional middle power allegiance. Cham: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-45689-8
Gelman, A., Carlin, J.B., Stern, H.S., Dunson, D.B., Vehtai, A., & Rubin, D.B. (2014). Bayesian data analysis. 3rd ed. New York: Chapman and Hall/CRC. https://doi.org/10.1201/b16018
German, F.C. (1960). A tentative evaluation of world power. The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 4(1), 138-144. https://www.jstor.org/stable/172589
Gomez, C.J., Herman, A.C., & Parigi, P. (2022). Leading countries in global science increasingly receive more citations than other countries doing similar research. Nature Human Behaviour. 6, 919-929. https:// doi.org/10.1038/s41562-022-01351-5
Jackson, V. (2020). Understanding spheres of influence in international politics. European Journal of International Security, 5(3), 255-273. https://doi.org/10.1017/eis.2019.21
Johnson, N.L., Kotz, S., & Balakrishnan, N. (1994). Continuous Univariate Distributions. 2nd ed. New York: John Wiley and Sons.
Kadera, K., & Sorokin, G. (2004). Measuring national power. International Interactions, 30(3), 211-230. https://doi.org/10.1080/03050620490492097
Kugler, J., Kang. K., Fisunoglu, A., & Kugler, T. (2021). Assessing the power of nations. TransResearch Consortium. Working Paper Series, No. 6. https://static1.squarespace.com/static/576ef1a0be65941edd80fcf7/t/606e450da9cf665182edca82/1617839375761/Power+of+Nations.pdf
Lebow, R.N., & Reich, S. (2017). Influence and hegemony: shifting patterns of material and social power in world politics. All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace, 6(1), 17-47. https://doi.org/10.20991/allazimuth.285155
Marquardt, K.L., & Pemstein, D. (2018). IRT models for expert-coded panel data. Political Analysis, 26(4), 431-456. https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2018.28
Mead, W.R., & Keeley, S. (2017). The eight great powers of 2017. The American Interest, January. https://www.the-american-interest.com/2017/01/24/the-eight-great-powers-of-2017/
Nye, J. (2004) Soft power: the means to success in world politics. New York: Public Affairs Group.
Pawitan, Y. (2013). In all likelihood: statistical modelling and inference using likelihood. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Rodríguez-Navarro, A., & Brito, R. (2022). The link between countries’ economic and scientific wealth has a complex dependence on technological activity and research policy. Scientometrics, 127, 2871-2896. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-022-04313-w
Scott, J.C. (1999). Seeing like a state: how certain schemes to improve the human condition have failed. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Singer, J.D., Bremer, S., & Stuckey, J. (1972). Capability distribution, uncertainty, and major power war, 1820-1965. In B.M. Russet (Ed.), Peace, War and Numbers (pp. 15-48). Beverly Hills: Sage.
Singer, J.D. (1980). The correlates of war. Testing some realpolitik models. New York: The Free Press.
Spruyt, H. (1994). The sovereign state and its competitors. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Waggoner, Ph.D. (2021). Modern dimension reduction. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
World Energy Outlook 2024. (2024). International Energy Agency. https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/140a0470-5b90-4922-a0e9-838b3ac6918c/WorldEnergyOutlook2024.pdf
Wuttke, A., Schimpf, C., & Schoen, H. (2020). When the whole is greater than the sum of its parts: on the conceptualization and measurement of populist attitudes and other multidimensional constructs. American Political Science Review, 114(2), 356-374. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055419000807
Akhremenko, A., & Mironyuk, M. (2019). The world ten years later: dynamics of the potentials of international influence of states. Obshchestvennye nauki i sovremennost, 1, 39-59. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.31857/S086904990003941-7
Kabernik, V.V. (2024). Traps set by statistics and how to evade them. Political Science (RU), 2, 237-261. (In Russ.) http://www.doi.org/10.31249/poln/2024.02.11
Melville, A.Yu., & Mironyuk, M.G. (2020). “Political Atlas of the Modern World” revisited. Polis. Political Studies, 6, 41-61. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2020.06.04
Melville, A.Yu., Malgin, A.V., Mironyuk, M.G., & Stukal, D.K. (2023.) “Political Atlas of the Modern World 2.0”. Formulation of the research problem. Polis. Political Studies, 2, 72-87. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2023.02.06
Melville, A.Yu., Malgin, A.V., Mironyuk, M.G., & Stukal, D.K. (2023). Empirical challenges and methodological approaches in comparative politics (through the lens of the Political Atlas of the Modern World 2.0). Polis. Political Studies, 5, 153-171. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2023.05.10
Mironyuk, M.G. (2024). Continuity and change in international orders and disorders. Political Science (RU), 2, 55-79. (In Russ.) http://www.doi.org/10.31249/poln/2024.02.03
Stukal, D.K. (2024). Subjective data in political science research: from expert evaluation to artificial intelligence. Political Science (RU), 2, 37-54. http://www.doi.org/10.31249/poln/2024.02.02
See also:
Blagoveshchensky Yu.N., Krechetova M.Yu., Satarov G.A.,
Expert-statistical, bayesian approach to political prognostication scenarios. – Polis. Political Studies. 2012. No4
Melville A.Yu., Stukal D.K., Mironyuk M.G.,
Trajectories of regime transformations and types of state consistency. – Polis. Political Studies. 2012. No2
Melville A.Yu., Ilyin M.V., Meleshkina E.Yu., Mironyuk M.G., Polunin Yu.A., Timofeev I.N.,
Essay of Countries Classification. – Polis. Political Studies. 2006. No5
Melville A.Yu., Malgin A.V., Mironyuk M.G., Stukal D.K.,
Empirical challenges and methodological approaches in comparative politics (through the lens of the Political Atlas of the Modern World 2.0). – Polis. Political Studies. 2023. No5
Sokolskaya I.B.,
Conservatism: an Idea or a Method?. – Polis. Political Studies. 1998. No5