Revolutions of the 21st century and the fifth generation of researchers of revolutionary events
Grinin L.Ye.,
HSE University; Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia, leonid.grinin@gmail.com
elibrary_id: 250272 | ORCID: 0000-0003-0278-2619 | RESEARCHER_ID: D-8842-2012
Korotayev A.V.,
HSE University; Institute for African Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia, akorotayev@gmail.com
elibrary_id: 72980 | ORCID: 0000-0003-3014-2037 | RESEARCHER_ID: N-1160-2018
Article received: 2025.02.21 14:16. Accepted: 2025.07.23 14:16

DOI: 10.17976/jpps/2025.06.12
EDN: VOOUVS
Grinin L.Ye., Korotayev A.V. Revolutions of the 21st century and the fifth generation of researchers of revolutionary events. – Polis. Political Studies. 2025. No. 6. https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2025.06.12. EDN: VOOUVS (In Russ.)
This article is an output of a research project implemented as part of the Basic Research Program at the HSE University in 2025 with support of the Russian Science Foundation (Project Number 23-18-00535).
In the early 2000s, after Jack Goldstone’s article on the formation of a fourth generation of revolution researchers, interest in the study of these generations grew. Since 2019, discussions have even begun that a fifth generation of researchers of revolution has come or may come to replace it. At the same time, the points of view on what kind of generation this is, whether it has formed, what tasks it faces, etc., vary considerably. The authors of the article believe that the fifth generation of theorists already exists, but this generation has not yet fully revealed itself. However, the analysis of the fifth generation of researchers is a major task that cannot be accomplished in one article. Therefore, the main objective of this article is to argue in detail and develop the thesis that each generation of revolution researchers has its own revolutions, which have distinctive characteristics. The specificities have led to a variety of scientific and political approaches, specific research methods, and much more.
References
Abrams, B. (2019). A fifth generation of revolutionary theory is yet to come. Journal of Historical Sociology, 32(3), 378-386. https://doi.org/10.1111/johs.12248
Allinson, J. (2019). A fifth generation of revolution theory? Journal of Historical Sociology, 32(1), 142-151. https://doi.org/10.1111/johs.12220
Beck, C.J. (2011). The world-cultural origins of revolutionary waves: five centuries of European contention. Social Science History, 35(2), 167-207.
Beck, C.J. (2014). Reflections on the revolutionary wave in 2011. Theory and Society, 43, 197-223.
Beck, C.J., Bukovansky, M., Chenoweth, E., Lawson, G., Nepstad, S.E., & Ritter, D.P. (2022). On revolutions: unruly politics in the contemporary world. Oxford: Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780197638354.001.0001
Beck, C.J., & Ritter, D.P. (2021). Thinking beyond generations: on the future of revolution theory. Journal of Historical Sociology, 34(1), 134-141. https://doi.org/10.1111/johs.12315
Beissinger, M.R. (2022). The revolutionary city. Urbanization and the global transformation of rebellion. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Bukovansky, M. (2002). Legitimacy and power politics: the American and French revolutions in international political culture. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Chenoweth, E., & Shay, C.W. (2022). Updating nonviolent campaigns: Introducing NAVCO 2.1. Journal of Peace Research, 59(6), 876-889. https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433221092938
Cuin Ch., & Gresle F. (1992). Histoire de la sociologie. Paris: La Decouvert.
Goldstone, J.A. (1991). Revolution and rebellion in the early modern world. Berkeley: University of California Press.
Goldstone, J.A. (2001). Toward a fourth generation of revolutionary theory. Annual Review of Political Science, 4(1), 139-187. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.4.1.139
Goldstone, J.A. (2024). The generations of revolutionary theory revisited: new works and the evolution of theory. Critical Sociology, 50(6), 1069-1086. https://doi.org/10.1177/08969205241241802
Goldstone, J.A., Grinin, L., & Korotayev, A. (2022). The phenomenon and theories of revolutions. In J.A. Goldstone et al. (Eds.), Handbook of Revolutions in the 21st Century (pp. 37-68). Cham: Springer Nature. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86468-2_2
Goldstone, J.A, & Ritter, D.P. (2019). Revolution and social movements. In D.A. Snow, S.A. Soule, H. Kriesi, & H.J. McCammon (Eds.), The Wiley Blackwell Companion to Social Movements (pp. 682-697). Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Goodwin, J. (2001). No other way out: states and revolutionary movements, 1945-1991. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Grinin, L., Grinin, A., & Korotayev, A. (2022). 20th century revolutions: characteristics, types, and waves. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 9(1), 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-022-01120-9
Grinin, L., & Korotayev, A. (2022). Revolutions, counterrevolutions, and democracy. In J.A. Goldstone et al. (Eds.), Handbook of Revolutions in the 21st Century (pp. 105-136). Cham: Springer Nature. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86468-2_4
Huntington, S.P. (1993). The third wave: democratization in the late twentieth century. Norton: University of Oklahoma press.
Lawson, G. (2016) Within and beyond the “fourth generation” of revolutionary theory. Sociological Theory. 34(2), 106-127. https://doi.org/10.1177/0735275116649221
Lawson, G. (2019) Anatomies of revolutions. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Levitsky, S., & Way, D. (2022). Revolution and dictatorship. The violent origins of durable authoritarianism. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Mako, S., & Moghadam, V.M. (2021). After the Arab uprisings: progress and stagnation in the Middle East and North Africa. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Mitchell, L.A. (2015) The color revolutions. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press.
Mitchell, L.A. (2022) The “color” revolutions. Successes and limitations of non-violent protest. In J.A. Goldstone et al. (Eds.), Handbook of Revolutions in the 21st century (pp. 435-445). Cham: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86468-2_15
Ritter, D.P. (2015). The iron cage of liberalism: international politics and unarmed revolutions in the Middle East and North Africa. Oxford: Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:o so/9780199658329.001.0001
Ritter, D.P. (2019). The (R)evolution is dead, long live the (r)evolution! Contention, 7(2), 100-107. https://doi.org/10.3167/cont.2019.070206
Skocpol, T. (1979). States and social revolutions: a comparative analysis of France, Russia, and China. New York: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511815805
Selbin, E. (2022). All around the world: revolutionary potential in the age of authoritarian revanchism. In J.A. Goldstone et al. (Eds.), Handbook of Revolutions in the 21st Century (pp. 415-434). Cham: Springer Nature. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86468-2_14
Tilly, Ch. (1995) To explain political processes. American Journal of Sociology, 100(6), 1594-1610. https://doi.org/10.1086/230673
Tilly, Ch. (1996). European revolutions, 1492-1992. Oxford: Blackwell.
Barsamov, V.A. (2006). ‘Colored’ revolutions. Theoretical and applied aspects. Sociological Studies, 8, 57-66. (In Russ.)
Eisenstadt, S.N. (1999). Revolution and the transformation of societies. A comparative study of civilizations (Russ. ed.: Eisenstadt, S.N. Revolyutsiya i preobrazovaniye obshchestv. Sravnitel’noye izucheniye tsivilizatsiy. Moscow: Aspect Press).
Goldstone, J.A., Grinin, L.E., & Korotayev, A.V. (2022). Waves of revolutions in the 21st century. Polis. Political Studies, 4, 108-119. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2022.04.09
Grinin L.E., & Grinin A.L. (2020). Revolutions of the 20th century: a theoretical-quantitative analysis. Polis. Political Studies, 5, 130-147. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2020.05.10
Grinin, L.E., & Korotayev, A.V. (2020). Methodological explanations for the study of revolutionary events]. Systemic Monitoring of Global and Regional Risks, 11, 853-861. (In Russ.)
Kapustin, B.G. (2019). Rassuzhdeniya o “kontse revolyutsii” [Reflections on the “end of the revolution”]. Moscow: Gaidar Institute Publishing House. (In Russ.)
Ponomareva, E. (2012). Secrets of the “color revolutions”. Free Thought, 5-6, 38-48. (In Russ.)
Rozov, N.S., Pustovoit, Yu.A., Filippov, S.I., & Tsygankov, V.V. (2019). Revolyutsionnye volny v ritmakh global’noi modernizatsii [Revolutionary waves in the rhythms of global modernization]. Moscow: URSS. (In Russ.)
Shul’ts, E.E. (2016). Teoriya revolyutsii: Revolyutsii i sovremennye tsivilizatsii [Theory of revolution: revolutions and modern civilizations]. Moscow: Lenand/URSS. (In Russ.)
Timofeeva, L.N. (2017). Сlassical Russian revolution and its contribution to the world civilization. Power, 25(9), 47-55. (In Russ.)
Zborovsky, G.E. (2003). On the periodization of the history of sociology. Journal of Sociology and Social Anthropology, 6(4), 23-39. (In Russ.)
See also:
Nefedov S.A.,
On the Reasons and Meaning of Revolutions (Nikolai Rozov’s Version). – Polis. Political Studies. 2019. No6
Goldstone J.A., Grinin L.Ye., Korotayev A.V.,
Waves of revolutions in the 21st century. – Polis. Political Studies. 2022. No4
Grinin L.Ye., Korotayev A.V.,
Revolution vs. Democracy (revolution and conterrevolution in Egypt). – Polis. Political Studies. 2014. No3
Luzyanin S.G.,
Chinese people’s republic: foreign-policy «transit». Renewal of theory and practice. – Polis. Political Studies. 2013. No6
Pivovarov Yu.S.,
The Sources and the Essence of the Russian Revolution. – Polis. Political Studies. 2007. No5

.jpg)






print.jpg)
.jpg)