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Long-term scenarios for the development of the international system (‘summer heat’ and ‘autumn chill’)

Kortunov A.V.,

Independent researcher, Moscow, Russia, akortunov@russiancouncil.ru

elibrary_id: 548604 | ORCID: 0000-0002-3897-6434 |

Article received: 2025.10.18 15:38. Accepted: 2025.11.20 15:38


DOI: 10.17976/jpps/2026.02.02
EDN: GMKCGB

Rubric: We in the World, the World in us

For citation:

Kortunov A.V. Long-term scenarios for the development of the international system (‘summer heat’ and ‘autumn chill’). – Polis. Political Studies. 2026. No. 2. https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2026.02.02. EDN: GMKCGB (In Russ.)

Abstract

In this second article devoted to the topic, the author considers international system development scenarios based on a sustainable consensus among major actors on fundamental political matters. Depending on the concurrent trends in global economic relations, this consensus may result by 2050 in two main scenarios – “global government” or “summer” of the system (deep and comprehensive global economic integration) and “mature multipolarity” or “autumn” of the system (regionalization of the former global economy and partial or complete self-locking of major centers of power within their respective regional integration projects). The comparative analysis of the four scenarios suggests that out of the four considered, the most probable are the “mature multipolarity” and “multiple world orders”, and the least probable are the “global government” and “game without rules” though the degree of probability might swiftly change depending on the ongoing and future changes in international relations. The shifts in probability will also depend on independent variables (economic, technological, social, climate, epidemiological and other) beyond the international system per se. The author concludes that the majority of international actors might well consider the two most likely scenarios as preferable to the potential alternatives all the shortcomings and deficiencies of the former notwithstanding, since these scenarios take the intermediate position between an unattainable world governance utopia (“global government”) and an apocalyptic total chaos anti-utopia (“game without rules”).

Keywords

governance, interdependence, balance of powers, national sovereignty, multipolarity, spheres of influence.

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