On coupvolution. History and justification of a new concept

On coupvolution. History and justification of a new concept


Fain E.D.,

HSE University, Moscow, Russia, efayn@hse.ru


elibrary_id: 1226525 | ORCID: 0000-0003-1229-3691 |

Korotayev A.V.,

HSE University; Institute for African Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia, akorotayev@gmail.com


elibrary_id: 72980 | ORCID: 0000-0003-3014-2037 | RESEARCHER_ID: N-1160-2018

Article received: 2025.01.10 12:58. Accepted: 2025.10.17 12:59


DOI: 10.17976/jpps/2026.04.12
EDN: ZGYEUB

Rubric: Thesaurus

For citation:

Fain E.D., Korotayev A.V. On coupvolution. History and justification of a new concept. – Polis. Political Studies. 2026. No. 4. https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2026.04.12. EDN: ZGYEUB (In Russ.)


This article is an output of a research project implemented as part of the Basic Research Program at the HSE University (HSE-BR-2025-048) in 2026 with support from the Russian Science Foundation (Project No. 24-18-00650).


Abstract

In the 21st century, the theory of revolutions has encountered a number of theoretical and practical difficulties, the main one being the conceptualization of revolutions. At the moment, the theory needs new focuses and approaches. One potential innovation that could enrich the theory is the concept of “coupvolution”, which emerged after the Egyptian Revolution of 2011. This paper explores the concept of “coupvolution”, defined as a particular type of revolutionary event in which elements of both coup and revolution are present. We trace the first emergence and uses of the concept in academic works, and also consider studies that describe phenomena of the same nature, but without using the term itself. In particular, we examine works on so-called “endgame” military coups and the consequences of coups preceded by protest activity. Next, the paper discusses the most comprehensive definitions of coupvolution, including Mark Beissinger’s definition. We study Beissinger’s conceptualization of coupvolution, and propose to distinguish two types of coupvolutions according to the sequence of events. The first type begins with a revolutionary mobilization followed by a military coup. The second type begins with a military coup, which triggers revolutionary mass mobilization. We illustrate these two types of coupvolutions with various examples from African history: in particular, the paper details the cases of coupvolutions in Burkina Faso. The paper examines the events in Burkina Faso in 2014, when the military seized power during a protest campaign against incumbent President Blaise Compaore; Thomas Sankara’s coup in Upper Volta in 1983, after which revolutionary changes began in the country. Finally, we demonstrate the necessity of the concept of “coupvolution” and its relevance for understanding current revolutionary processes.

Keywords
coupvolution, revolution, military coups, theory of revolutions, regime transformations, Africa, Egyptian revolution.


References

Abrams, B. (2019). A fifth generation of revolutionary theory is yet to come. Journal of Historical Sociology, 32(3), 378-386. https://doi.org/10.1111/johs.12248

Allinson, J. (2019). A fifth generation of revolution theory? The Journal of Historical Sociology, 32(1), 142-151. https://doi.org/10.1111/johs.12220

Arendt, H. (1963). On revolution. New York: Viking Press.

Bayat, A. (2017). Revolution without Revolutionaries: Making Sense of the Arab Spring. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.

Beck, C.J. (2017). Revolutions: robust findings, persistent problems, and promising frontiers. In M. Stohl, M. Lichbach, & P. Grabosky (Ed.), States and Peoples in Conflict (pp. 168-183). New York: Routledge.

Beck, C.J. (2020). Revolutions against the state. In T. Janoski, C. de Leon, J. Misra, & I.W. Martin (Ed.), The New Handbook of Political Sociology (pp. 564-592). New York: Cambridge University Press.

Beck, C.J., & Ritter, D.P. (2021). Thinking beyond generations: on the future of revolution theory. Journal of Historical Sociology, 34(1), 134-141. https://doi.org/10.1111/johs.12315

Beck, C.J., Bukovansky, M., Chenoweth, E., Lawson, G., Nepstad, S.E., & Ritter, D.P. (2022). On revolutions: unruly politics in the contemporary world. New York: Oxford University Press.

Beissinger, M.R. (2022). The revolutionary city: urbanization and the global transformation of rebellion. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Beissinger, M.R. (2024). The evolving study of revolution. World Politics, 75(5), 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1353/wp.0.a920225

Brinton, C. (1938). The anatomy of revolution. New York: W. W. Norton & Co.

Casper, B.A., & Tyson, S.A. (2014). Popular protest and elite coordination in a coup d’état. The Journal of Politics 76(2), 548-564. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381613001485

Cassell, K. (2021). Representation in the Americas: perceptions of external efficacy in the 2018/19.Nashville: Vanderbilt University.

Chenoweth, E., & Shay, C.W. (2022). Updating nonviolent campaigns: Introducing NAVCO 2.1. Journal of Peace Research, 59(6), P. 876-889. https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433221092938

Chouli, L. (2015). The popular uprising in Burkina Faso and the transition. Review of African Political Economy, 42(144), 325-333.

Dahl, M., & Gleditsch, K.S. (2023). Clouds with silver linings: how mobilization shapes the impact of coups on democratization. European Journal of International Relations, 29(4), 1017-1040. https://doi.org/10.1177/13540661221143213

Davies, J.C. (1962). Toward a theory of revolution. American Sociological Review, 27(1), 5-19.

Edwards, L.P. (1927). The natural history of revolution. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Eisenstadt, S. (1978) Revolution and the transformation of societies. New York: The Free Press.

Eizenga, D., & Villalón, L.A. (2020). The undoing of a semi-authoritarian regime: the term limit debate and the fall of Blaise Compaoré in Burkina Faso. In J.R. Mangala (Ed.), The Politics of Challenging Presidential Term Limits in Africa (pp. 141-170). Cham: Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86468-2_1

Fain, E., Issaev, L., & Korotayev, A. (2024). Coupvolution as a mechanism of regime change in the Sahel. In J. Besenyő, L. Issaev, & A. Korotayev (Ed.), Terrorism and Political Contention. New Perspectives on North Africa and the Sahel Region (pp. 133-150). Cham: Springer Nature.

Frère, M.S., & Englebert, P. (2015). Briefing: Burkina Faso–the fall of Blaise Compaore. African Affairs, 114(455), 295-307.

Goldstone, J.A. (2001). Toward a fourth generation of revolutionary theory. Annual Review of Political Science, 4(1), 139-187.

Goldstone, J.A. (2014). Revolutions: a very short introduction. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Goldstone, J.A., Grinin, L., & Korotayev, A. (2022). Introduction. Changing yet persistent: revolutions and revolutionary events. In J.A. Goldstone, L. Grinin, & A. Korotayev (Ed.), Handbook of Revolutions in the 21st Century: The New Waves of Revolutions, and the Causes and Effects of Disruptive Political Change (pp. 1-34). Cham: Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86468-2_1

Goodwin, J., & Rojas, R. (2015). Revolutions and regime change. In D. Della Porta, & M. Diani (Ed.), The Oxford Handbook of Social Movements (pp. 793-804). Padstow: Oxford University Press.

Grinin, L., & Grinin, A. (2022). Revolutionary waves and lines of the twentieth century. In J.A. Goldstone, L. Grinin, & A. Korotayev (Ed.), Handbook of Revolutions in the 21st Century: The New Waves of Revolutions, and the Causes and Effects of Disruptive Political Change (pp. 315-387). Cham: Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-022-01120-9

Grinin, L., Grinin, A., & Korotayev, A. (2022). 20th century revolutions: characteristics, types, and waves. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 9(1), 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-022-01120-9

Gurr, T. R. (1968). A causal model of civil strife: a comparative analysis using new indices. American Political Science Review, 62(4), 1104-1124.

Harsch, E. (2014). Thomas Sankara: an African revolutionary. Athens: Ohio University Press.

Harsch, E. (2017). Burkina Faso: a history of power, protest, and revolution. London: Bloomsbury Publishing.

Johnson, C.A. (1968). Revolutionary Change. Boston: Little, Brown and Company.

Johnson, J., & Thyne, C.L. (2018). Squeaky wheels and troop loyalty: How domestic protests influence coups d’état, 1951-2005. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 62(3), 597-625. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002716654742

Kerton, S. (2012). Tahrir, here? The influence of the Arab uprisings on the emergence of Occupy. Social Movement Studies, 11(3-4), 302-308.

Koehler, K., & Albrecht, H. (2021). Revolutions and the military: endgame coups, instability, and prospects for democracy. Armed Forces & Society, 47(1), 148-176. https://doi.org/10.1177/0095327X19881747

Korotayev. A., Issaev, L., Ilyina, A., Zinkina, J., & Voronina, E. (2024). Revolutionary history of Niger: from independence to 2023 coup. In J. Besenyő, L. Issaev, & A. Korotayev (Ed.), Terrorism and Political Contention. New Perspectives on North Africa and the Sahel Region (pp. 169-194). Cham: Springer Nature. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-53429-4_9

Korotayev, A., & Khokhlova, A. (2022). Revolutionary events in Mali, 2020-2021. In L. Issaev, & A. Korotayev (Ed.), New Wave of Revolutions in the MENA Region: A Comparative Perspective (pp. 191-218). Cham: Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-15135-4_9

Korotayev, A., Shishkina, A., & Khokhlova, A. (2022). Global echo of the Arab Spring. In J.A. Goldstone, L. Grinin, & A. Korotayev (Ed.), Handbook of Revolutions in the 21st Century: The New Waves of Revolutions, and the Causes and Effects of Disruptive Political Change (pp. 813-849). Cham: Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86468-2_31

Kostelyanets, S. (2022). Sudan’s December revolution and the demise of the Al Bashir Regime. In L. Issaev, & A. Korotayev (Ed.), New Wave of Revolutions in the MENA Region: A Comparative Perspective (pp. 33-56). Cham: Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-15135-4_2

Lawson, G. (2019). Anatomies of revolution. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Moll, Y. (2014). The wretched revolution. Middle East Report, 273, 34-39.

Rasler, K., Thompson, W.R., & Bou Nassif, H. (2022). The extent of military involvement in nonviolent, civilian revolts and their aftermath. In J.A. Goldstone, L. Grinin, & A. Korotayev (Ed.), Handbook of Revolutions in the 21st Century: The New Waves of Revolutions, and the Causes and Effects of Disruptive Political Change (pp. 739-779). Cham: Springer International Publishing.

Sadovskaya, L., Fakhrutdinova, N., & Kochanova, T. (2022). Modern civic protest movements in subSaharan Africa in the context of global political destabilization. In J.A. Goldstone, L. Grinin, & A. Korotayev (Ed.), Handbook of Revolutions in the 21st Century: The New Waves of Revolutions, and the Causes and Effects of Disruptive Political Change (pp. 923-939). Cham: Springer International Publishing

Sanderson, S.K. (2015). Revolutions. A worldwide introduction to social and political contention (Second Edition). New York: Routledge.

Skocpol, T. (1979). States and social revolutions: a comparative analysis of France, Russia and China. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Sorokin, P. (1925). The Sociology of Revolution. Philadelphia, PA: JB Lippincott Company.

Springborg, R. (2012). Learning from failure: Egypt. In T.C. Bruneau, & F. C. Matei (Ed.), The Routledge Handbook of Civil-Military Relations (pp. 93-109). New York: Routledge.

Springborg, R. (2016). Caudillismo along the Nile. The International Spectator, 51(1), 74-85.

Tilly, Ch. (1993). European Revolutions, 1492-1992. London: Blackwell Publishers.

Trimberger, K.E. (1978). Revolution from above: military bureaucrats and development in Japan, Turkey, Egypt, and Peru. New Brunswick: Transaction Books.

Wackenhut, A.F. (2024). Between (de-) mobilization, polarization, and transnational repression: the Egyptian diaspora in the wake of the January 25 uprising. Globalizations, 22(1), 66-80.

Yukawa, T., Hidaka, K., Kushima, K., & Fujita, M. (2022). Coup d’état and a democratic signal: the connection between protests and coups after the Cold War. Journal of Peace Research, 59(6), 828-843.

Zuhur, S. (2022). Islamic reveiling in Cairo. In N. Al Sayyad (Ed.), Routledge Handbook on Cairo: Histories, Representations and Discourses (pp. 287-302). New York: Routledge.

Content No. 4, 2026

See also:


Nefedov S.A.,
On the Reasons and Meaning of Revolutions (Nikolai Rozov’s Version). – Polis. Political Studies. 2019. No6

Grinin L.Ye., Korotayev A.V.,
Revolutions of the 21st century and the fifth generation of researchers of revolutionary events. – Polis. Political Studies. 2025. No6

Goldstone J.A., Grinin L.Ye., Korotayev A.V.,
Waves of revolutions in the 21st century. – Polis. Political Studies. 2022. No4

Pivovarov Yu.S.,
The Sources and the Essence of the Russian Revolution. – Polis. Political Studies. 2007. No5

Oganisyan Yu.S.,
Hundred Years of Wars and Revolutions. The Epoch Continues?. – Polis. Political Studies. 2017. No1

 
 

Archive

   2026   
   2025      2024      2023      2022      2021   
   2020      2019      2018      2017      2016   
   2015      2014      2013      2012      2011   
   2010      2009      2008      2007      2006   
   2005      2004      2003      2002      2001   
   2000      1999      1998      1997      1996   
   1995      1994      1993      1992      1991