print

Global centers of power in a changing world order:
prospects for modeling and forecasting development

Lapkin V.V.,

Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia, vvlh@politstudies.ru

elibrary_id: 43429 | ORCID: 0000-0002-0775-2630 | RESEARCHER_ID: AAB-9386-2021

Prokhorenko I.L.,

Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia, irinapr@imemo.ru

elibrary_id: 203298 | ORCID: 0000-0002-8090-7934 | RESEARCHER_ID: M-1933-2018

Article received: 2026.05.25 14:03. Accepted: 2026.07.03 14:03


DOI: 10.17976/jpps/2026.05.08
EDN: WZRRCN

Rubric: Theory and methodology of political studies

For citation:

Lapkin V.V., Prokhorenko I.L. Global centers of power in a changing world order: prospects for modeling and forecasting development. – Polis. Political Studies. 2026. No. 5. https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2026.05.08. EDN: WZRRCN (In Russ.)

This article was prepared with the support of a grant from the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation for major scientific projects in priority areas of scientific and technological development No. 075-15-2024-551 “Global and regional centers of power in the emerging world order”.

Abstract

The current transformational transition, during which the structure of the modern world order is fundamentally changing, requires conceptual rethinking. The development of new predictive models and promising strategies presupposes a critical rethinking of existing approaches to describing the dynamics of the world system, traditionally dualistic: either as a system of centers of power or as a system of polarities. This article argues a conditional nature of this “dualism” and a functional interdependence of these two systemic conceptions. The authors focus on improving the diagnostic tools for new, sometimes merely potential, centers of power concentrating development resources and forming the “peripheral aura” of dependent polities, as well as new polarizing confrontations, schisms, and hotbeds of global conflict. The goal of this study is to model the systemic logic of this transformation, including through the reconstruction of a phased reconfiguration of the systemically organized structural elements of the world order (centers of power and polarities). The authors refine the assessment parameters and forecasting methods for the dynamics of global centers of power, emphasizing their intangible resources potential. These discursive resources, as well as cultural, civilizational, identitarian and value-based ones, have recently acquired crucial significance, whereas their role in global geopolitical transformations was underestimated up until recently. A model of the geopolitical evolution of the system of centers of power is proposed, taking into account the ascending and descending trends in the status dispositions of individual centers, as well as the changes in their functional role within the system. The processes of the formation and disintegration of individual global and local orders are analyzed, and the question of the evolutionary dynamism's nature inherent in this system is raised. Modeling the evolution of such a system allows us to peer “beyond the event horizon,” into the barely discernible future of the world system, including the most likely scenarios for changes in the status positions of both global and regional centers of power, both leaders of today and those rapidly rising. An assessment is given of the dynamics and emerging structural parameters of their relationships (including those institutionally formalized).

Keywords

international political system, transformation of the world order, centers and poles of power, fragmentation of the geopolitical and geoeconomic space, revisionist powers, civilisational identity, discursive power, forecasting studies.

Bahramian, B. (2012). Transition to a new world order: what we leave behind for the next generation. Bloomington: AuthorHouse.

Boiler, F., & Wiedekind, J. (2025). The declining reliability of U.S. foreign policy and its domestic sources under Trump II. Z Aufien Sicherheitspolit, 18, 577-587. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12399-025-01075-0

Duncombe, C., & Dunne, T. (2018). After liberal world order. International Affairs, 94(1), 25-42. https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iix234

Eisenstadt, S. (2007). Multiple Modernities. Der Streit um die Gegenwart. Berlin: Kulturverl. Kadmos.

Gasparyan, A., & Duarte, P.A.B. (2024). Rethinking the low profile: the evolving stance of China's strategic culture. Comparative Strategy, 43(6), 654-669. https://doi.org/10.1080/01495933.2024.2409038

Guyatt, N. (2003). Another American century? The United States and the world since 9/11. London: Zed Books.

Haass, R.N. (2008). The age of nonpolarity: what will follow U.S. dominance. Foreign Affairs, 87(3), 44-56. https://www.jstor.org/stable/20032650

Haass, R.N. (2019). How a world order ends and what comes in its wake. Foreign Affairs, 98(1), 22-30. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/how-world-order-ends

Hanhimaki, J.M., Soutou, G.-H., & Germond, B. (Eds.). (2010). The Routledge handbook of transatlantic security. London: Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203846698

Kaplan, M.A. (1957). System and process in international politics. New York: Wiley.

Kristensen, H.M., Korda, M., Johns, E., & Knight, M. (2025). Chinese nuclear weapons. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 81(2), 135-160. https://doi.org/10.1080/00963402.2025.2467011

Lardi, Z. (2012). Limited achievements: Obama’s foreign policy. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. https:// doi.org/10.1057/9781137020871

Mehlhausen, T., Wagstyl, A., Grzeszczak, R., & Karolewski, I.P. (2026). Legitimacy of differentiated integration in the European Union. European Politics and Society, 27(1), 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1080/23745118.2025.2546801

Milanovic, B. (2020). The clash of capitalisms: the real fight for the global economy’s future. Foreign Affairs, 99(1), 10-22.

Modelski, G. (1987). Long cycles in world politics. London: Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-09151-5

Modelski, G. (1990). Is world politics evolutionary learning? International organization, 44(1), 1-24. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818300004628

Modelski, G., & Thompson, W.R. (1996). Leading Sectors and world powers: the coevolution of global economics and politics. Columbia: University of South Carolina Press.

Mott, W.H., & Kim, J.C. (2006). The philosophy of Chinese military culture. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781403983138

Murray, D., & Brown, D. (Eds.). (2012). Multipolarity in the 21st century: a new world order. New York: Routledge.

Arbatova, N.K. (2020). Will European Union become a global power center? World Economy and International Relations, 64(6), 51-65. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2020-64-6-51-65

Baranovsky, V.G. (2017). Transformation of global world order: dynamics of systemic changes. Polis. Political Studies, 3, 71-91. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2017.03.05.

Baranovsky, V.G. (2019). New international order: overcoming or transforming the existing pattern? World Economy and International Relations, 63(5), 7-23. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2019-63-5-7-23

Baranovsky, V.G. (2025). On the formation of a new world order. Polis. Political Studies, 1, 7-23. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2025.01.02

Bogaturov, A.D. (2010). Liderstvo i kriterii liderstva v mirovoi sisteme [Leadership and criteria of leadership in the world system]. In A.D. Bogaturov (Ed.), Sovremennaya mirovaya politika: Prikladnoi analiz [Contemporary World Politics: Applied Analysis] (pp. 153-166). Moscow: Aspect Press. (In Russ.)

Dynkin, A.A. (2024). World order transformation: economy, ideology, technology. Polis. Political Studies, 5, 8-23. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2024.05.02

Fenenko, A.V. (2023). International order as a category of international studies: theoretical foundations. International Trends, 21(1), 6-42. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17994/IT.2023.21.1.72.8

Grinin, L.E. (2016). World order in the past, present and future. Istoriya i sovremennost', 1, 20-63. (In Russ.)

Gromyko, Al.A. (2024). The world of polycentrism: the role of values in major powers’ competition. Polis. Political Studies, 6, 7-21. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2024.06.02

Lane, D. (2021). Civilisation and the globalisation of capitalism. Polis. Political Studies, 4, 58-75. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2021.04.06

Lapkin, V.V. (2024). The transformation of the world order: the evolutionary aspect. Polis. Political Studies, 4, 146-165. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2024.04.11

Lapkin, V.V., & Pantin, V.I. (2004). Geoekonomicheskaya politika i global’naya politicheskaya istoriya [Geoeconomic policy and global political history]. Moscow: Olita Publishers. (In Russ.)

Lapkin, V.V., & Pantin, V.I. (2019). Historical dynamics of the international market system: leadership cycles, geopolitical expansion, and the prospects for transforming the world order. Istoriya i sovremennost', 1, 17-61. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.30884/iis/2019.01.02

Lebedeva, M.M., & Kuznetsov, D.A. (2026). BRICS development: multicentricity, network structure and expansion. Polis. Political Studies, 4, 7-23. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2026.04.02

Martyanov, V.S. (2010). One modernity or “a multitude”? Polis. Political Studies, 6, 41-53. (In Russ.)

Martyanov, V.S. (2021). In search of another mainstream. Polis. Political Studies, 4, 112-131. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2021.04.09

Nikitin, A.I. (2018). Modern world order, its crisis and prospects. Polis. Political Studies, 6, 32-46. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2018.06.03

Primakov, E.M. (1996). On the horizon — multipolar world. The International Affairs, 10, 3-13. (In Russ.)

Prokhorenko, I.L. (2023). Diskursy politsentrichnogo mira i “novoi normal'nosti” [Discourses of the polycentric world and the “new normal”]. In I.S. Semenenko (Ed.), Identichnost': lichnost', obshchestvo, politika. Novye kontury issledovatel'skogo polya [Identity: The Individual, Society, and Politics. New Outlines of the Research Field] (pp. 77-85). Moscow: Ves' Mir. (In Russ.)

Safranchuk, I.A., & Lukyanov, F.A. (2021). The contemporary world order: the adaptation of actors to structural realities. Polis. Political Studies, 4, 14-25. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2021.04.03

Semenenko, I.S., Lapkin, V.V., & Pantin, V.I. (2025). Centers of power in world politics: diversifying leadership resources. Polis. Political Studies, 5, 112-134. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2025.05.08

Xuetong, Y. (2022). Liderstvo i vozvyshenie velikikh derzhav [Leadership and the rise of great powers]. Moscow: Magistr. (In Russ.)

See also: