Evolutionary cycles and problems of forecasting political changes


Semenenko I.S.,

Dr. Sci. (Pol. Sci.), Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Head of Centre for Comparative Socioeconomic and Political Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), Russian Academy of Sciences, isemenenko@mail.ru

elibrary_id: 251670 |

DOI: 10.17976/jpps/2015.01.15
ID of the Article:


For citation:

Semenenko I.S. Evolutionary cycles and problems of forecasting political changes. – Polis. Political Studies. 2015. No 1. P. 173-178 (In Russ.) . DOI: https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2015.01.15



Abstract

The author reviews the recently published monograph (Pantin V.I., Lapkin V.V. Istoricheskoe prognozirovanie v XXI veke: Tsikly Kondrat’eva, evolyutsionnye tsikly i perspektivy mirovogo razvitiya [Historical Forecasting in the XXI Century: Kondratieff Cycles, Evolutionary Cycles and Prospects of the World Development]. Dubna: Phoenix+. 2014. 456 p.) and comes to the conclusion that it represents an original view on the key methodological problems of modern social sciences regarding analysis and forecasting of political changes.

Keywords
crises; scientific forecasting; Kondratieff cycles; reforms; counter-reforms.


Content No 1, 2015

See also:


Pantin V.I.,
Cycles of reforms – counter-reforms in Russia and their correlation with cycles of the world development. – Polis. Political Studies. 2011. No6

Rozov N.S.,
Global Crisis in the Context of World Development Megatrends and Prospects of the Russian Policy. – Polis. Political Studies. 2009. No3

Zagladin N.V.,
The new world and old paradigms of its cognition. – Polis. Political Studies. 2015. No1

Akayev A.A.,
«A Mathematical Model Should Be Good Help for Politicians…». – Polis. Political Studies. 2009. No3

Plyays Ya.A.,
Have the reforms come to an end and what have been their results?. – Polis. Political Studies. 2010. No5

 

   

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