Indicators of Innovative Potential of Political and Economic Development


Sergeev V.M.,

Dr. Sci. (Hist.), Cand. Sci. (Phys.-Math.), Professor, Director of the Center for Global Problems, Institute of International Studies, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University), MFA of Russia, laris-pulena@rambler.ru

elibrary_id: 1447 |

Artyushkin V.F.,

Cand. Sci. (Pol. Sci.), Associate Professor of the Department of Mathematics, Econometrics and IT, Senior Researcher, Center for Global Studies, Institute of International Studies, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University), MFA of Russia, ururur1@bk.ru

elibrary_id: 73848 |


DOI: 10.17976/jpps/2016.06.08
For citation:

Sergeev V.M., Artyushkin V.F. Indicators of Innovative Potential of Political and Economic Development. – Polis. Political Studies. 2016. No. 6. P. 114-126. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2016.06.08



Abstract

The article discusses a new approach to obtain estimates of political and economic development of different countries. It assumes the additional set to the standard indicators with those results, which shows a simulation of the spread of the Internet, on the basis of available statistics of the number of Internet connections. A retrospective analysis of data allows to determine the type of model function and to adjust the values of its parameters. As such a function we choose the logistic growth function, which effectively describes the dynamics of diffusion of innovation. In the history of the Internet were recorded the phases of gradual and abrupt-shaped patterns of development. For their adequate understanding the standard simulation scheme has been amended. Statistical data was divided into two intervals, for each was built its model curve. The final results of the model on the first interval were the source data for the model on the second. The results of simulation applied to the several developed and developing countries correspond well with peculiarities of modernization processes in each of set of countries. Particularly useful is the fact that the process of modeling allows to receive important numerical evaluation, for example, the level of stabilization of the internet propagation and the ratio of the velocities of propagation on the first and second stage. Significant differences between the nature of the dynamics of a statistical series of the Internet connections for both developed and developing countries are the basis for their use as indicators of political and economic development. The comparison with the statistical gross domestic product and employment in agriculture shows significant correlations especially in the countries with the economies in transition. As an example statistics for Turkey was analyzed; It is shown that in the current state of affairs the possibility for innovative development in this country has been exhausted. Therefore, in order to prevent stagnation, the country needs to search and launch new political and economic mechanisms. Thus, the proposed method of modeling, forecasting and analysis of internet indicators allows to an expert to build a more objective assessment of the future dynamics of political and economic development of the countries in the state of transition.

Keywords
innovation potential; index of internet connections; mathematical modeling; forecasting; development indicators.


Content No. 6, 2016

See also:


Lurie S.V., Kazaryan L.G.,
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Okunev I.Yu.,
The Stanford Model of Development Crisis. – Polis. Political Studies. 2009. No3

Akayev A.A.,
«A Mathematical Model Should Be Good Help for Politicians…». – Polis. Political Studies. 2009. No3

Akhremenko A.S.,
Spatial Modeling of Electoral Choice: Development, Modern Problems and Prospects (II). – Polis. Political Studies. 2007. No2

Akhremenko A.S.,
Dynamics Aproach to Mathematical Modelling of Political Stability. – Polis. Political Studies. 2009. No3

 

   

Introducing an article



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2 2016


Solovyov A.I.
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