The Russian Revolution and Modernization Traps

The Russian Revolution and Modernization Traps


Grinin L.Ye.,

Dr. Sci. (Philos.), Principal Researcher, Laboratory for Monitoring Risks of Socio-Political Destabilization of the Faculty of Social Sciences, National Research University Higher School of Economics; Leading Researcher, Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, leonid.grinin@gmail.com


elibrary_id: 250272 |


DOI: 10.17976/jpps/2017.04.10

For citation:

Grinin L.Ye. The Russian Revolution and Modernization Traps. – Polis. Political Studies. 2017. No. 4. P. 138-155. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2017.04.10



Abstract

The Russian Revolution dramatically changed the history of our country and of the whole world. The search for its causes generated many theories and views. On the one hand, we can hardly perceive it beyond the peculiar socio-historical development of the Russian society and specific historical situation. On the other hand, starting from the Modern Era, many countries were ‘taken ill’ with revolutions. In the present article the author analyzes the Russian Revolution in connection with the world historical process, defines some common causes of revolutions and shows in what way these causes have manifested in our history, he also reveals the similarity of the Russian Revolution with other significant revolutions as well as distinguishes its peculiarities. This gives an opportunity to answer the questions whether the Russian Revolution was inevitable and whether the drastic social transformations that took place in the first period of the Soviet history were inevitable either. The focus of the present article lies on the correlation between revolution and modernization, on the interconnections, threats and traps that result from an accelerated development of a society and can lead to revolutions. Starting from the Modern era the revolutions are underpinned in most cases by considerable disproportions in the societal development resulting from an accelerated modernization. These disproportions are aggravated by a fast population growth and by an extremely sharp increase of the share of urban population in the structure of society. The article demonstrates how and why the revolutions occur during the periods after some (sometimes long) increase in the living standards of population and growing expectations, as well as why the revolutions are possible just in the societies successful in economic terms as it was with the pre-revolutionary Russia. The conclusion is made that the revolution at a certain stage of modernization is more probably a predicted pattern than a random event. The article reveals the mechanism that brings a society into a peculiar-type trap – the modernization one. While the Malthusian trap is believed to be connected with a lag of productive forces from population growth rates and the generally insufficient transformational dynamics, the modernization trap, on the contrary, is associated with extremely rapid changes which leave behind some most important societal relations and institutions. In Russia there originated a peculiar type of modernization trap – the Malthusian-Marxian one. 

Keywords
modernization; revolution; the Russian revolution; political regime; democracy; crisis; elevated expectations; deprivation; the youth bulge; the Malthusian trap; modernization trap; the Malthusian-Marxian trap; historical process.


References

Armengaud A. Population in Europe 1700=1914. – The Industrial Revolution. 1700-1914. Ed. C.M. Cipolla. London: Harvester. 1976. P. 22-76.

Artzrouni M., Komlos J. Population Growth through History and the Escape from the Malthusian Trap: A Homeostatic Simulation Model. – Genus. 1985. No. 41 (3-4). P. 21-39.

Berdyaev N.A. Tsarstvo dukkha i tsarstvo kesarya [The Realm of Spirit and The Realm of Caesar]. Moscow: Respublika. 1995. 384 p. (In Russ.)

Boix С. Democracy, Development, and the International System. – American Political Science Review. 2011. Vol. 105. No. 4. P. 809-828.

Brunk G.G., Caldeira G.A., Lewis‐Beck M.S. Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy: An Empirical Inquiry. – European Journal of Political Research. 1987. Vol. 15 (4). P. 459-470.

Burkhart R.E., Lewis-Beck M.S. Comparative Democracy: the Economic Development Thesis. – American Political Science Review. 1994. No. 88 (04). P. 5-19.

Dahl R.A. Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition. New Haven: Yale University Press. 1971. 257 p.

Davies J.С. Toward a Theory of Revolution. – American Sociological Review. 1962. Vol. 27. No. 1. P. 5-19.

Davies J.С. Toward a Theory of Revolution. – Studies in Social Movements. A Social Psychological Perspective. Ed. by B. McLaughlin. New York: Free Press. 1969. P. 85-108.

Epstein D.L., Bates R., Goldstone J., Kristensen I., O’Halloran S. Democratic Transitions. – American Journal of Political Science. 2006. Vol. 50. No. 3. P. 551-569. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2006.00201.x

Goldstone J. Population and Security: How Demographic Change Can Lead to Violent Conflict. – Journal of International Affairs. 2002. Vol. 56. No. 1. P. 3-21.

Goldstone J. Revolutions: A Very Short Introduction (Russ. ed.: Goldstone J. Revolyutsii. Ochen’ kratkoye vvedeniye. Moscow: Institut Gaydara Publ. 2015. 196 p.)

Gregory P. Ekonomicheskiy rost Rossiyskoy imperii (konets XIX – nachalo XX veka) [Economic Growth of Russian Empire (the End of the 19th – Beginning of the 20th centuries)]. Moscow: ROSSPEN. 2003. 252 p. (In Russ.)

Grinin L., Korotayev A. Great Divergence and Great Convergence. A Global Perspective. Cham; Dordrecht: Springer. 2015. 252 p. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-17780-9

Grinin L.E. The State and Crises in the Process of Modernization. – Filosofiya i obschestvo. 2013. No. 3. P. 29-59. (In Russ.)

Grinin L.E., Isayev L.M., Korotayev A.V. Revolyutsii i nestabil’nost’ na Blizhnem Vostoke [Revolutions and Instability in the Middle East]. Мoscow: Mosk. red. izd-va Uchitel. 2016. 384 p. (In Russ.)

Grinin L.E., Korotayev A.V. Revolution vs. Democracy (Revolution and Conterrevolution in Egypt). – Polis. Political Studies. 2014. No. 3. P. 139-158. (In Russ.) DOI: https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2014.03.09

Grinin L.E., Korotayev A.V. Urbanization and Political Instability: to the Development of Mathematical Models of Political Processes. Polis. Political Studies. 2009. No. 4. P. 34-52. (In Russ.) URL: http://www.politstudies.ru/article/4150 (accessed 31.05.2017).

Gurr T. A Causal Model of Civil Strife: a Comparative Analysis Using New Indices. – American Political Science Review. 1968. Vol. 62. No. 4. P. 1104-1124. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/1953907

Gurr T. Persistence and Change in Political Systems, 1800-1971. – American Political Science. 1974. No. 68 (December). P. 1482-1504.

Gurr T. Why Men Rebel. New York: Routledge. 2015. xiv, 291 p.

Huntington S. Political Order in Changing Societies. (Russ. ed.: Huntington S. Politicheskiy poryadok v menyayuschikhsya obschestvakh. Moscow: Progress-traditsiya. 2004. 480 p.)

Izmestyev Yu.V. Rossiya v ХХ veke. Istoricheskiy ocherk, 1894-1964 [Russia in the 20th Century. Historical sketch, 1894-1964]. New York: Pereklichka. 1990. (In Russ.)

Kögel T., Prskawetz A. Agricultural Productivity Growth and Escape from the Malthusian Trap. – Journal of Economic Growth. 2001. No. 6. P. 337-357. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1012742531003

Komlos J., Artzrouni M. Mathematical Investigations of the Escape from the Malthusian Trap. – Mathematical Population Studies. 1990. No. 2. P. 269-287. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/08898489009525313

Lenin V.I. Detskaya bolezn’ “levizny” v kommunizme [The Child’s Disease of “Leftness” in Communism]. – Polnoye sobraniye sochineniy [Full Collection of works]. Vol. 41. Moscow: Politizdat. 1981. P. 1-104. (In Russ.)

Lenin V.I. O dvoevlastii [On Duality of Power]. – Polnoye sobraniye sochineniy [Full Collection of works]. Vol. 31. Moscow: Politizdat. 1969. P. 145-148. (In Russ.)

Londregan J.B., Poole K.T. Does High Income Promote Democracy? – World Politics. 1996. Vol. 49. P. 1-30. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1353/wp.1996.0024

Nefyodov S.A. Kontseptsiya demograficheskikh tsiklov [The Concept of Demographic Cycles]. Ekaterinburg: UGGU Publ. 2007. 141 p. (In Russ.)

Nefyodov S.A. O prichinakh russkoy revolyutsii [About the Reasons of Russian Revolution]. – O prichi­nakh russkoy revolyutsii. Otv. red. L.E. Grinin, A.V. Korotayev, S.Yu. Malkov [About the Reasons of Russian Revolution. Ed by L.E. Grinin, A.V. Korotayev, S.Yu. Malkov]. Moscow: LKI/URSS. 2010. P. 25-60. (In Russ.)

O prichinakh russkoy revolyutsii. Pod red. L.E. Grinina, A.V. Korotayeva, S.Yu. Malkova [About the Reasons of Russian Revolution. Ed. by L.E. Grinin, A.V. Korotayev, S.Yu. Malkov]. Moscow: LKI/URSS. 2010. 432 p. (In Russ.)

Poberezhnikov I.V. Perekhod ot traditsionnogo k industrial’nomu obschestvy: teoretiko-metodologicheskiye problemy modernizatsii [The Transition from Traditional to Industrial Society: The Theoretical-Methodological Issues of Modernization]. Moscow: ROSSPEN. 2006. 240 p. (In Russ.)

Rossiya 1913 god. Statistiko-dokumental’nyy spravochnik [Russia, 1913. Statistical and Documnetary Handbook]. Saint Petersburg: BLITZ. 1995. 415 p. (In Russ.)

Rueschemeyer D., Stephens E.H., Stephens J.D. Capitalist Development and Democracy. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. 1992. 398 p.

Sorokin P.A. Sotsiologiya revolyutsii [Sociology of Revolution]. – Human. Community. Management. Moscow: Politizdat. 1992. P. 266-294. (In Russ.)

Steinmann G., Komlos J. Population Growth and Economic Development in the Very Long Run: A Simulation Model of Three Revolutions. – Mathematical Social Sciences. 1998. No. 16. P. 49-63.

Steinmann G., Prskawetz A., Feichtinger G. A Model on the Escape from the Malthusian Trap. – Journal of Population Economics. 1998. No. 11. P. 535-550. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s001480050083

Tocqueville A. de. L’ancien regime et la revolution. (Russ. ed.: Tocqueville A. de. Staryy poryadok i revoly­utsiya. Moscow: Moskovskiy filosofskiy fond. 1997. 252 p. )

Travin D., Marganiya О. Evropeyskaya modernizatsiya [European Modernization]. Мoscow: AST. 2004. 672 p. (In Russ.)

Wood J.W. A Theory of Preindustrial Population Dynamics: Demography, Economy, and Well-Being in Malthusian Systems. – Current Anthropology. 1998. No. 39. P. 99-135. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1086/204700

Yakovlev A.I. Ocherki modernizatsii stran Vostoka i Zapada в XIX–XX vekakh [Sketches of Modernization of Eastern and Western Countries in the 19th and 20th Centuries]. Moscow: URSS. 2010. 504 p. (In Russ.)    

Content No. 4, 2017

See also:


Pantin I.K.,
Russian revolution as a problem of political philosophy. – Polis. Political Studies. 2011. No5

Matsiyevsky Yu.V.,
Trapped in Hybridity: Ukraine’s Regime Transformations after the 2014 Revolution. – Polis. Political Studies. 2018. No1

Pastukhov V.B.,
Ukrainian revolution and Russian counter-revolution. – Polis. Political Studies. 2010. No5

Grinin L.Ye., Korotaev A.V.,
Revolution vs. Democracy (revolution and conterrevolution in Egypt). – Polis. Political Studies. 2014. No3

Kozhokin E.M. ,
The End of the Great Russian Revolution?. – Polis. Political Studies. 2017. No6

 
 

Archive

   2023      2022      2021   
   2020      2019      2018      2017      2016   
   2015      2014      2013      2012      2011   
   2010      2009      2008      2007      2006   
   2005      2004      2003      2002      2001   
   2000      1999      1998      1997      1996   
   1995      1994      1993      1992      1991