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printThe Share of Youth in the Total Population as a Factor of Intensity of Non-Violent Protests:
A Quantitative Analysis
Romanov D.M.,
HSE University, Moscow, Russia, dm.romanov@me.com
ORCID: 00000-0001-9052-5019 |Meshcherina K.V.,
HSE University, Moscow, Russia, k.meshcherina@hotmail.com
elibrary_id: 779127 | ORCID: 0000-0002-7447-1521 | RESEARCHER_ID: D-9527-2017
Korotayev A.V.,
HSE University, Moscow, Russia; Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia, akorotayev@gmail.com
elibrary_id: 72980 | ORCID: 0000-0003-3014-2037 | RESEARCHER_ID: N-1160-2018
DOI: 10.17976/jpps/2021.03.11
For citation:
Romanov D.M., Meshcherina K.V., Korotayev A.V. The Share of Youth in the Total Population as a Factor of Intensity of Non-Violent Protests: A Quantitative Analysis. – Polis. Political Studies. 2021. No. 3. P. 166-181. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2021.03.11
This article was prepared in the framework of the HSE University Fundamental Research Program in 2020 with financial support provided by the Russian Science Foundation, Project No. 18-18-00254. The authors express their gratitude to S.A. Nikiforova for invaluable help in the preparation of this article.
Abstract
Studies in political demography suggest that there should be a positive correlation between the increased share of youth in the total population (‘youth bulges’) and the intensity of anti-government demonstrations. However, a correlation analysis (without adding any control variables) between the youth bulges and the intensity of non-violent protests demonstrates unexpected results: in this case, a statistically significant negative correlation is identified instead. It is shown that this is due to sociopolitical, sociocultural, and economic modernization factors. In the long run, modernization – through a decrease in the birth rate and an increase in life expectancy – leads to the population ageing and a reduction in the share of youth in the total adult population, which by itself acts as a factor in reducing the intensity of anti-government demonstrations. Nevertheless, on the other hand, modernization gives rise to other powerful factors, such as democratization, urbanization, and the expansion of formal education, which are more than able to compensate for the ‘youth bulge’ decline. These theoretical expectations have been confirmed by our tests. After the introduction of respective control variables, ‘youth bulges’ turn out to be a factor increasing the intensity of protests, yet without these controls they become a predictor of the relatively low intensity of non-violent protests. Thus, our tests show that a high proportion of young people in the total population, all other things being equal, is still a factor in the increased intensity of anti-government demonstrations; without a decrease in ‘youth bulges’, modernization would have led to a significantly more pronounced increase in the intensity of non-violent protests.
Keywords
non-violent protests, political demography, youth bulges, modernization, political instability.
Дополнительные материалы
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Content No. 3, 2021
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