Revolutionary events of the 21st century: a preliminary quantitative analysis

Revolutionary events of the 21st century:
a preliminary quantitative analysis

Goldstone J.A.,

George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government, Arlington, USA,

ORCID: 0000-0003-1524-6081 |

Grinin L.Ye.,

HSE University, Moscow, Russia; Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia,

elibrary_id: 250272 | ORCID: 0000-0003-0278-2619 | RESEARCHER_ID: D-8842-2012

Ustyuzhanin V.V.,

HSE University, Moscow, Russia,

elibrary_id: 1164721 | ORCID: 0000-0003-3800-1108 |

Korotayev A.V.,

HSE University, Moscow, Russia; RUDN University, Moscow, Russia; M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia,

elibrary_id: 72980 | ORCID: 0000-0003-3014-2037 | RESEARCHER_ID: N-1160-2018

Article received: 2022.05.05. Accepted: 2023.02.08

DOI: 10.17976/jpps/2023.04.05

For citation:

Goldstone J.A., Grinin L.Ye., Ustyuzhanin V.V., Korotayev A.V. Revolutionary events of the 21st century: a preliminary quantitative analysis. – Polis. Political Studies. 2023. No. 4. P. 54-71. (In Russ.). EDN: FSMFMK

The research was conducted with the support of the Russian Science Foundation (project No. 19-18-00155).


In this article, the authors consider important aspects of the revolutionary process of the 21st century. They analyse the reasons why the revolutionary process of the early 21st century is taking up speed, as well as forecasts that indicate that it will be very active in the future. Various revolutionary trends are identified, including a particularly alarming one – the growth in the number of radical Islamist revolutionary insurgencies. All of the above is illustrated by a statistical analysis of various types of revolutions. As far as we know, there are practically no quantitative studies of the revolutions of the last decades. Meanwhile, this analysis convincingly shows the growing importance of African countries in the revolutionary process in the World System, the role of which will continue to grow in the future due to the rapid growth of the population and maturation of statehood in this region.

revolution, revolutionary event, color revolution, Islamist revolution, revolutionary process, unconsolidated democracies.


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Content No. 4, 2023

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